Jeff Bezos is one of the best decision-makers in business. He is also not shy in sharing his thoughts and ideas on how to sharpen your decision-making processes.

It's not me, it's definitely you!

In cognitive science, the "bias blind spot" refers to recognising bias in others but not in oneself.

Last year was a bumper year for buybacks in US banks, with Citi finally coming to the party and announcing a $20bn return to shareholders.

Who is the most famous traitor?

Judas Iscariot? Benedict Arnold? Scar from The Lion King?

In the UK, the current season of Traitors on BBC is riveting viewing, especially if you are as keen on psychology and human behaviour.

If you work in investments, there is a good chance you have sat in either an investment committee meeting or a team meeting when there has been an argument between members. I have seen this many times, with some more eventful than others!

How do you build a high functioning team?

It's a really good question and one you may have either faced or will encounter in the future.

The sage advice of James Montier when thinking about behavioural decision-making in investment. Too often we get bogged down in data, technicals and complexity that it distorts the objective of what you are trying to achieve. Simplify the process wherever you can and ask yourself if you really need that extra bit of information.

The election of Donald Trump in November ended up being more conclusive than commentators predicted prior to election night.

“Shall we just jump on Teams?”

“Let’s do a Zoom!”

It’s become so normalised now that it’s even a verb. Either way, meetings taking place online are helpful and have fundamentally changed the way we communicate.

It’s almost the end of the year and if you are a manager of people you may be thinking about:

📊 How your team have performed

🏆 Incentives/Promotions

🎯 Objectives for 2025

The image shows an outline B-17 Bomber airplane (or aeroplane? I can never decide on that one!) commonly used by the US Air Force in WWII. The red dots represent bullet holes from incoming enemy fire.

“We have two ears and one mouth so we can listen twice as much as we speak”

Epictetus

This is 'Sutton’s Law' and is taught in medical schools worldwide as a way to help practitioners diagnose the most obvious reason before jumping to alternative theories.

“Be like water”

It is the most famous quote attributed to Bruce Lee. The actual quote is famous in Chinese philosophy and Taoism and has been used for decades. Lee made it mainstream.

Top 3 things (in reverse order) that would have never happened without someone, somewhere taking a risk without being able to calculate the probability of success:

I recently spent a lovely long weekend with my wife in Zurich. This post isn’t about how nice the Lindt is or the beautiful lake and mountain vista or even the strange micro climate. I wanted to talk about crossing the road.

I recently finished the excellent book by Ian G. on ‘How to Win the Premier League’. For anyone interested in sport (football), statistics and decision-making, it is a must read. I cant imagine what drew me towards the book?!

“If everyone’s jumping on the bandwagon, I’d rather build my own wagon. It might have square wheels, but at least it’s original!”

Contrarian thinking is hard to do. It is uncomfortable. It’s much easier to follow the crowd and not stand out. Psychologically we are not wired to accept we are wrong and therefore being part of the group allows us to take comfort in being wrong with others. The contrarian has to take the opposite view and know they are leaving themselves open to, at best, criticism and at worst, ridicule.