"finished yet?"

"When do you think you will have that report finished?"

"Next Tuesday?"

What are the chances that the report is complete by Tuesday? According to social science, the chances are low, mainly as a result of planning fallacy.

The planning fallacy is a cognitive bias that affects individuals and groups when assessing the time, cost and risks involved in undertaking a task. It was popularised in 1979 in the work of Kahneman & Tversky.

If you have ever undertaken any building work you will have no doubt experienced this bias first hand! Don't worry, it's normal. In 1957, Danish architect Jorn Utzon won the honour of designing the Sydney Opera House. The venue was expected to open for business in 1963 but due to overrunning costs and poor scheduling, the project completed in October 1973!

The planning fallacy can manifest in various aspects of everyday life, such as:

⏳Time Estimates: Underestimating the time required for tasks or projects, leading to delays.

📋Workload: Expecting to accomplish more in a given time frame than is realistic.

⛔Traffic and Travel: Underestimating commute times or travel durations.

📚Personal Goals: Assuming personal projects or self-improvement efforts will be completed faster than they realistically can be.

🏦Financial Planning: Underestimating expenses and overestimating income or investment returns.

🏋️Health and Fitness: Expecting quicker results in fitness or health improvement than is typically achievable.

So, how is it best to help mitigate this? You will need to use some simple but important techniques to break this fallacy:

1. Use Base Rates whenever possible - Michael Mauboussin likes you to ask the question "what happened when other people were in this situation before?" By doing this, you draw on distribution of past experiences which can be very helpful information to understand how things might unfold.

2. Break down tasks - by dividing up the larger piece into smaller chunks it helps to understand the magnitude of what you are setting yourself.

3. Ask an expert - swallowing the pride and seeking expert advice is helpful as it also gives an outside view of what you are facing.

Next time someone asks for the report, maybe don't commit early to the Tuesday!