decision traps

If you are looking for a great quote, it’s always worth checking out the work of Mark Twain before you search too far. Mr Twain seemingly has some wisdom on many topics.

One of my favorites is “The secret of getting ahead is getting started.”

I have a very good longstanding friend from school. He is a super smart guy and always has, and will be a great source of advice. He is also a top class procrastinator. He has great ideas but wants to think about every angle and detail. It’s admirable in a lot of ways and I’m sure it helps him get to where he wants to be. The problem is that he is quite often correct in his analysis of what will happen next but never really gets to capitalise on it because he often talks himself out of it due to overthinking every risk involved (he has been right in his analysis on Tech giants, crypto expansion, etc just in the last 5 years).

Now I know there is a fine line here between being detail oriented and actually executing but sometimes you have to just trust your instincts and take a plunge.

With decision-making you have a choice about how much detail you go into at the ‘information gathering’ phase. Russo and Schoemaker talk about this in great detail in their excellent book ‘Decision Traps’. They caution the balance between quality and quantity, saying that too much information can create indecision and overloading.

My advice is once you have an idea, time box how long you will sit with it. The limit will be different depending on the idea and your personality. The concept of boxing in the time is that it helps set the clock on when to stop. Over time, the idea has to either live or die.

In business, life or investing you always want to make the right decision. The right decision does not always correlate with the hours and hours of analysis done. Sometimes it’s important to trust your instincts and listen to the words of Mark Twain and just “get started.”