probability of positive returns

The probability of positive returns increases the longer you hold your investment.

The chart below is from Macrobond and shows; MSCI World Equity Mid and MSCI Large Cap Total Return in GBP, 1 January 1972- July 2022

Investing in markets can be stressful and there will always be times when it feels like capitulating. Remember to stay the course in order to achieve your financial goals.

I recently had a call with a US investor/author who has a great track record and was proud to tell me that in 2023, his turnover was zero. This is psychologically hard to do, but sometimes doing nothing and letting investments compound is the the right choice. Unfortunately his fund is hard closed to new investors.

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Poisson Distribution

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avoiding conformity