Predictions, predictions.
Fool's paradigm in my opinion but they are a requirement for any serious investment firm. It's a cottage industry.
Why are they so popular? Is it because they like to give the author (or reader) the sense they know what is about to happen next in highly complex financial markets? Are we to be expected to believe that someone sat in central London can predict the next phase of growth in Silicon Valley?
How many times do people hold their feet to the fire by the end of the year? Are there any real consequences for these market strategists to be wrong?
I wouldn't waste my time. What I find more interesting, is the yearly Saxo Bank 'Outrageous Predictions'. Unashamedly, they try to predict things that are very unlikely to happen but not outright black swans. I think this type of prediction is more interesting as it gets the imagination going.
It is much more fun to predict NVIDIA to grow to be twice the size of Apple! I think so, given that no one in their right mind knows what is going to happen next with either stock with any type of certainty. Why do you think we write "Past Performance is NO guide to the future" as a disclaimer at the end of all presentations?!
As well as the NVIDIA story, Saxo predict Trump blowing up the dollar, the end of OPEC and bio-printing a human heart! Well worth the read.
